Fantasy Football Overrated – WR – 2020
Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs
Wouldn’t it be nice to the be the fastest guy on the field? I’m not even the fastest guy in my office and I work from home. Patrick Mahomes just throws the ball to a deep spot on the field and lets Tyreek Hill catch up with it. What Hill loses in size he makes up with pure speed, quickness and instincts to find that crease and take it to the house. If we average Hill’s stats over a 16-game season, he could have put up 1,146 receiving yards and 9 TD’s. He’s been durable career to date so let’s hope last year’s 12 game season was the exception rather than the rule.
Hill’s 2018 season warranted his top 15 draft pick last year, but the 2019 season exposed my biggest concern, his inconsistency. He averaged almost 11 fantasy points a week but has huge high and lows throughout the season. After a slow start week one with 2.1 fantasy points, injuries sacked him for weeks 2 to 5. He returned with a vengeance, averaging 16.8 fantasy points for the next 5 games but dropped off the map at the most important time. In that period, he averaged 7.4 fantasy points a game, only breaking double-digits once.
His monster 2018 was consistently great, 2017 and 2019 were consistently inconsistent. Hill’s average draft position is in the top ten and it’s too high. If you want a wide receiver with your first pick, then Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins (huge targets expected) or Julio Jones are safer picks. If you love the big play, then there’s no one better than Tyreek Hill, but it’ll hurt when he doesn’t get one.
Don’t forget to check out our other Fantasy Football Overrated Players!
Keenan Allen – Los Angeles Chargers
Allen has been torching defenses for three straight years and emerged as one of the best fantasy wide receivers in the game. Allen is an average size receiver at 6’2” and not incredibly fast but runs greats routes. He finds himself open often and it’s no coincidence. He is more than willing to go get the ball in traffic after dodging defensive backs with crafty misdirection. The question is whether Justin Herbert will be an upgrade over Philip Rivers.
Allen has three 1,000 yard receiving seasons with 6 TD’s in each of the last three years. Herbert will struggle early and if for some reason Tyrod Taylor begins the season as the starter, Allen’s numbers will drop. As the season rolls on and the quarterback situation become more stable then Allen could be a buy low trade target. But I wouldn’t be drafting him preseason with so many other comparable and less risky wide receivers available.
Randall Cobb – Houston Texans
There are 150 targets up for grabs with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins and Cobb is in line to snag as many as possible. Last season in Dallas, Cobb got 83, and with a 15.1 average surely took advantage. After nine NFL seasons, Cobb has produced marginally #2 and more often #3 fantasy wide receiver numbers except for the 2014 season where he ripped of 1,287 yards and 12 TD’s.
Cobb has shown he could be the number one dog but this late in his career, I’d be extremely surprised. Especially with a new offense and another new quarterback. He won’t be anything more than a fantasy reserve. For 2020, I’m sure Cobb will have a couple surprise games but nothing worth drafting for.
Amari Cooper – Dallas Cowboys
Cooper earned a huge off-season deal for $100 million that followed Elliott’s mammoth deal last off-season. The Cowboys are going all in for a Super Bowl run over the next three years. He certainly did his part for 6th highest scoring offense last season. Cooper plays bigger than his 6’1” 225-pound frame and makes for an easy target. He earns respect with no over the middle fears.
He finished the season with career highs in yardage (1,189), yards per catch (15.1) and TD’s (8). As the second highest paid receiver going into 2020, I’m not convinced those numbers are worth the pudding, but this is a fantasy recommendation, not a salary cap advisory board.
Entering the 2020 season, all the pieces for another decent fantasy season are in line. He’s a low-end number one receiver with consistency problems. He produced only four 100-yards games and just one multi-touchdown game. What’s most concerning are seven games with less than 50 receiving yards. The question going into this season is whether Cooper can once again meet or beat career highs, or if he’s reached the ceiling and will regress. The overrated label is based on draft position as Cooper probably won’t statistically be a top ten receiver.
Robby Anderson – Carolina Panthers
The Panthers opened the checkbook and signed Robby Anderson for 2 years, $20 million. The wide receiver free agent market was slim pickings after Amari Cooper and A.J. Green, neither of which really hit the open market. That left teams desperate for a wideout to overpay but let’s face it, NFL receivers are expensive. Looking at Anderson’s career so far, it’s been consistently average. The last two season are almost mirror images of each other. Over four seasons with the Jets, Anderson has averaged 52 receptions on 95 targets (55% conversion rate) and 5 TD’s. In Anderson’s defense he’s had some of the worst quarterbacks in the league to work with over his short career.
Entering Carolina unfortunately, he’s upgraded his paycheck but hasn’t improved his quarterback situation. Anderson is lean receiver with breakaway speed and a true deep threat. Bridgewater isn’t remotely accurate on the long ball so it’s challenging to figure out where Anderson improves his numbers on a team where Christian Mccaffrey is option number one, two and three on every play. New teams can bring new optimism for a fantasy players value, but this isn’t one of them. In 2019, he had four, maybe five games worthy of a fantasy start at the #3 position and I don’t see how moving to Carolina improves that.
Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers
Can someone please tell me why Davante Adams is in the top five receiver conversation with an average draft position in the top twelve range? Fantasy football is a what have you done for me lately and I’m concerned about the trend. The Packers offense has re-focused on the run and Adam Jones is an excellent reason to do so. The lack of a #2 wide receiver allows defenses to double and triple team Adams. Adams has also not played a 16 games season for three years in a row, including missing 4 games last season.
Will injuries continue to mount for Adams, well your guess is as good as mine but for a top ten pick, there should be no questionable variables. Let’s also mention he didn’t score until Thanksgiving week last season (the season starts in September!). The Packers offense led by Aaron Rodgers has been one of the best over the last decade, but all good things come to an end. Marshall Faulk was a first round pick before dropping of the map, so was Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson and many others. Davante Adams is a whole lot of risk and a reward you will be able to get from at least ten other wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills
The acquisition of Stefan Diggs came at a steep price for the Buffalo Bills, but they finally have their deep threat receiver. Oh wait, didn’t they already have one in John Brown? Diggs is an inch taller and about 10 pounds heavier than Brown, but that’s not saying much in the world where the prototypical NFL WR is in the 6’2” to 6’4” range and packs 210 to 220 lbs. Looking at the 2019 results in completely different offenses, Brown and Diggs had almost the exact same production. Diggs had 70 more receiving yards and matched Brown with 6 TD’s. Hardly the production worth the honey pot of picks sent to Minnesota.
The same question that applies to John Brown applies to Stefon Diggs for the 2020 season. Will targets get spread around more or will overall targets increase? In a predominately passing league, the Bills stayed close to 50/50 between the pass and run. Allen’s roll out and running ability skews the ratio a little as what may have started as a pass play turned into an Allen run. Diggs averaged a little over 10 fantasy points per game but was often the primary target in an injury riddled down year from Adam Thielen.
I just don’t see Buffalo in the frigid Northeast suddenly turning into a pass first offense. Run the ball and play great defense is their formula. Will Diggs help the offense? Of course! Will the addition of Diggs increase fantasy production for Brown and / or Diggs? Nope! I’m expecting similar production as last years and both receiving fit into the #3 WR with occasionally #2 WR games.
Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you must pick between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on who will emerge as the #1 wide receiver on this team, then Evans is the selection. Evans is a huge target and almost uncoverable. He doesn’t mind going up and getting it even when the he knows the big hit is coming. Never mind the red zone, where his 6’5” 235-pound frame is dominating. He finally has a quarterback who will find him to the tune of double-digit TD’s.
The only concern for a week to week play for both Evans and Godwin is consistency. They both have monster games one week and then disappear the next. The presence of Godwin does weaken his argument for a #1 wide receiver as they’ve been evenly targeted. Rob Gronkowski and OJ Howard will also eat into some of Mike Evans targets. Yes, we are getting nitpicky, but I’d rather have the guy who is the first option all the time than the guy who is the second option half of the time for my #1 wide receiver.
Jalen Reager – Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were desperately in need of a top end wide receiver and they made their bet with Jalen Reager with the 21st overall pick. Reager was the 4th receiver off the board though many rankings had him as the 8th to 10th best prospect. Of course, this means little until they lace up the cleats, but most analysts had a completely different take on Reager than the Eagles. This reminds me of the Derrius Hayward-Bey pick where the Raiders thought they knew something everyone else didn’t.
The bright side is that the Eagles currently have two major injury risk starters in Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson. Carson Wentz is a short passing game quarterback, which does play into the slot receiver style that Reager will likely lineup in. The challenge is being the 4th to 6th option after Jeffrey, Jackson, Ertz and Sanders. Reager won’t get enough volume to have any fantasy value this season until Jeffrey and Jackson get injured.