Fantasy Football Inconsistent Performers – 2020

Inconsistency is a fantasy killer and spending high draft picks on players who lay an egg one week and hit pay dirt the next makes for a very stressful fantasy season. The #1 and #2 quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends below fall victim to inconsistent fantasy output from week to week. The table includes the standard deviation (Standard deviation is a number used to tell how measurements for a group are spread out from the average (mean) or expected value.) and a Low Range / High Range which is one standard deviation from the average. 

Fantasy Football Consistent Performers – 2020

Daniel Jones is a quarterback on the rise but is a risky bet as your sole starter this season. Jones averaged 16.5 fantasy points with a standard deviation of 11.5 and High / Low range from 27 to 5. Jones had 4 weeks with 28 fantasy points or more but five with 12 or less including a few single digit weeks. Hopefully Jones can flatten his chart instead of the wide swings of ups and downs each week.  

Aaron Rodgers had consistency issues last season as well. The offensive philosophy of Matt LaFleur is different than the shootout mentality in the previous administration that made Rodgers a top five fantasy quarterback for the last decade. Rodgers averaged 17 fantasy points a week, but one 43-point weekend skewed the average by almost 2 fantasy points. In 10 of Rodgers 16 games, he produced less than 15 fantasy points. The beginning of the end is here for Rodgers and I’d look elsewhere for a starting quarterback this season. 

YEARGAMEPOSTEAMPLAYERFPTSAVG FPTSLOW RANGEHIGH RANGESTD DEV
20191QBGBAaron Rodgers12.917.48.2326.579.17
20192QBGBAaron Rodgers14.417.48.2326.579.17
20193QBGBAaron Rodgers13.317.48.2326.579.17
20194QBGBAaron Rodgers25.517.48.2326.579.17
20195QBGBAaron Rodgers9.417.48.2326.579.17
20196QBGBAaron Rodgers18.317.48.2326.579.17
20197QBGBAaron Rodgers43.817.48.2326.579.17
20198QBGBAaron Rodgers27.117.48.2326.579.17
20199QBGBAaron Rodgers12.917.48.2326.579.17
201910QBGBAaron Rodgers1017.48.2326.579.17
201911QBGBAaron Rodgers9.517.48.2326.579.17
201912QBGBAaron Rodgers28.117.48.2326.579.17
201913QBGBAaron Rodgers11.417.48.2326.579.17
201914QBGBAaron Rodgers14.417.48.2326.579.17
201915QBGBAaron Rodgers8.317.48.2326.579.17
201916QBGBAaron Rodgers1917.48.2326.579.17


YEARGAMEPOSTEAMPLAYERFPTSAVG FPTSLOW RANGEHIGH RANGESTD DEV
20191QBNYGDaniel Jones-0.816.545.4127.6711.13
20192QBNYGDaniel Jones34.216.545.4127.6711.13
20193QBNYGDaniel Jones12.316.545.4127.6711.13
20194QBNYGDaniel Jones10.516.545.4127.6711.13
20195QBNYGDaniel Jones5.216.545.4127.6711.13
20196QBNYGDaniel Jones10.416.545.4127.6711.13
20197QBNYGDaniel Jones28.216.545.4127.6711.13
20198QBNYGDaniel Jones11.816.545.4127.6711.13
20199QBNYGDaniel Jones30.316.545.4127.6711.13
201910QBNYGDaniel Jones14.716.545.4127.6711.13
201911QBNYGDaniel Jones8.216.545.4127.6711.13
201912QBNYGDaniel Jones35.316.545.4127.6711.13
201913QBNYGDaniel Jones14.616.545.4127.6711.13

 




 

Inconsistent quarterbacks breed inconsistent running backs. Aaron Jones and Saquon Barkley both fall victim to very high highs and low lows. Aaron Jones averaged over 16 fantasy points a week and is a clear #1 fantasy running back. Jones has a couple games that skew that average on the high side so maybe we should be happy that he’s capable of the 25+ week. What’s worrisome is Jones had 5 games with 4 or less fantasy points.  

Barkley averaged almost 15 fantasy points a week in his thirteen games played. If you remove his two highest weeks, then his average drops dramatically to an average of 11.4 fantasy points. Barkley doesn’t have as many goose eggs as Jones did but the presumption that he’s a top five fantasy running back is just wrong. The talent is there but the numbers don’t support a 1st round pick. 

YEARGAMEPOSTEAMPLAYERFPTSAVG FPTSLOW RANGEHIGH RANGESTD DEV
20191RBNYGSaquon Barkley13.914.784.9124.659.87
20192RBNYGSaquon Barkley19.514.784.9124.659.87
20193RBNYGSaquon Barkley3.714.784.9124.659.87
20194RBNYGSaquon Barkley1414.784.9124.659.87
20195RBNYGSaquon Barkley20.314.784.9124.659.87
20196RBNYGSaquon Barkley9.514.784.9124.659.87
20197RBNYGSaquon Barkley3.114.784.9124.659.87
20198RBNYGSaquon Barkley614.784.9124.659.87
20199RBNYGSaquon Barkley11.514.784.9124.659.87
201910RBNYGSaquon Barkley6.714.784.9124.659.87
201911RBNYGSaquon Barkley26.314.784.9124.659.87
201912RBNYGSaquon Barkley39.914.784.9124.659.87
201913RBNYGSaquon Barkley17.714.784.9124.659.87

 

YEARGAMEPOSTEAMPLAYERFPTSAVG FPTSLOW RANGEHIGH RANGESTD DEV
20191RBGBAaron Jones3.916.614.9728.2511.64
20192RBGBAaron Jones2116.614.9728.2511.64
20193RBGBAaron Jones14.316.614.9728.2511.64
20194RBGBAaron Jones11.816.614.9728.2511.64
20195RBGBAaron Jones42.216.614.9728.2511.64
20196RBGBAaron Jones416.614.9728.2511.64
20197RBGBAaron Jones14.316.614.9728.2511.64
20198RBGBAaron Jones34.616.614.9728.2511.64
20199RBGBAaron Jones2.916.614.9728.2511.64
201910RBGBAaron Jones27.316.614.9728.2511.64
201911RBGBAaron Jones3.816.614.9728.2511.64
201912RBGBAaron Jones3.116.614.9728.2511.64
201913RBGBAaron Jones25.216.614.9728.2511.64
201914RBGBAaron Jones17.116.614.9728.2511.64
201915RBGBAaron Jones2616.614.9728.2511.64
201916RBGBAaron Jones14.316.614.9728.2511.64

 




 

Mike Evans is an all or nothing wide receiver. Evans averaged 12.8 fantasy points a week, but three games widely exaggerated his weekly average. Without his three huge games Evans was a #3 wide receiver at best, with an average of just over 7 fantasy points a week. His High / Low range run the full gamut of 0 catches to 190 yards and 3 TD’s. The question is whether Tom Brady will stabilize this offense.

Marvin Jones falls into the same category as Mike Evans to a lesser extent. Jones was brought into the Lions to be the #1 wide receiver, but Kenny Golladay has taken over that role. If Matthew Stafford is healthy then there is room for a second fantasy receiver in Detroit, but Jones’s ups and downs make him a tough start. Jones averaged 10 fantasy points a week but only reached double digits 5 of his 13 games played. The downside is that the bad weeks are bad with another 5 games with under 5 fantasy points. 

YEARGAMEPOSTEAMPLAYERFPTSAVG FPTSLOW RANGEHIGH RANGESTD DEV
20191WRTBMike Evans2.812.751.7923.7110.96
20192WRTBMike Evans6.112.751.7923.7110.96
20193WRTBMike Evans3712.751.7923.7110.96
20194WRTBMike Evans14.912.751.7923.7110.96
20195WRTBMike Evans012.751.7923.7110.96
20196WRTBMike Evans11.612.751.7923.7110.96
20197WRTBMike Evans31.812.751.7923.7110.96
20198WRTBMike Evans2412.751.7923.7110.96
20199WRTBMike Evans8.212.751.7923.7110.96
201910WRTBMike Evans6.912.751.7923.7110.96
201911WRTBMike Evans512.751.7923.7110.96
201912WRTBMike Evans5.312.751.7923.7110.96
201913WRTBMike Evans12.112.751.7923.7110.96

 

YEARGAMEPOSTEAMPLAYERFPTSAVG FPTSLOW RANGEHIGH RANGESTD DEV
20191WRDETMarvin Jones610.151.6218.688.53
20192WRDETMarvin Jones4.310.151.6218.688.53
20193WRDETMarvin Jones16.110.151.6218.688.53
20194WRDETMarvin Jones7.710.151.6218.688.53
20195WRDETMarvin Jones1.710.151.6218.688.53
20196WRDETMarvin Jones33.310.151.6218.688.53
20197WRDETMarvin Jones2.210.151.6218.688.53
20198WRDETMarvin Jones18.610.151.6218.688.53
20199WRDETMarvin Jones7.710.151.6218.688.53
201910WRDETMarvin Jones15.910.151.6218.688.53
201911WRDETMarvin Jones4.610.151.6218.688.53
201912WRDETMarvin Jones1010.151.6218.688.53
201913WRDETMarvin Jones3.810.151.6218.688.53

 




 

Critiquing the tight end position for consistency is a little harsh but one premier tight end did stand out. Mark Andrews had a fantastic year with 7 of his 15 games in double digits. The bad news is that most of his other games were under the 5-fantasy point total. Spending a high draft pick is questionable in my opinion.

I’m in the party that likes to wait for the second-tier tight ends with the hopes of finding this year’s breakout player. Speaking of second-tier tight ends, Evan Engram is roller coaster ride of injuries, double-digit weeks and forgettable performances. He is not a tight end to rely on if you disagree with the early tight end draft philosophy.  

YEARGAMEPOSTEAMPLAYERFPTSAVG FPTSLOW RANGEHIGH RANGESTD DEV
20191TEBALMark Andrews16.89.553.2115.896.34
20192TEBALMark Andrews17.29.553.2115.896.34
20193TEBALMark Andrews1.59.553.2115.896.34
20194TEBALMark Andrews9.19.553.2115.896.34
20195TEBALMark Andrews4.59.553.2115.896.34
20196TEBALMark Andrews7.99.553.2115.896.34
20197TEBALMark Andrews3.99.553.2115.896.34
20198TEBALMark Andrews2.19.553.2115.896.34
20199TEBALMark Andrews17.39.553.2115.896.34
201910TEBALMark Andrews13.59.553.2115.896.34
201911TEBALMark Andrews4.59.553.2115.896.34
201912TEBALMark Andrews119.553.2115.896.34
201913TEBALMark Andrews1.49.553.2115.896.34
201914TEBALMark Andrews11.29.553.2115.896.34
201915TEBALMark Andrews21.39.553.2115.896.34

YEARGAMEPOSTEAMPLAYERFPTSAVG FPTSLOW RANGEHIGH RANGESTD DEV
20191TENYGEvan Engram17.68.182.3314.035.85
20192TENYGEvan Engram4.88.182.3314.035.85
20193TENYGEvan Engram17.38.182.3314.035.85
20194TENYGEvan Engram5.48.182.3314.035.85
20195TENYGEvan Engram4.78.182.3314.035.85
20196TENYGEvan Engram0.68.182.3314.035.85
20197TENYGEvan Engram108.182.3314.035.85
20198TENYGEvan Engram58.182.3314.035.85